Iraqi PM claims he saw Trump Iran war plan with ground invasion through Iraq

According to a report by Iraqi newspaper Al-Mada, Zaidi, who also serves as the Commander-in-Chief of Iraq's Armed Forces, made the claims during a meeting of the Coordination Framework, an alliance of the country's Shia political parties. The report said the plan outlines three possible scenarios for a war between the US and Iran, involving ground combat on Iraqi or Iranian territory.

What the leaked plan is said to contain

Al-Mada reported Zaidi as telling attendees that he had seen part of the leaked war plan, which outlines three possible scenarios envisioned by American war planners and presented to Trump. The first scenario involved American ground troops using Iraqi territory to launch an invasion of southern Iran. Southern Iran is a particularly important part of the country because it includes Khuzestan, an oil-rich province. The region houses some of Iran's major oilfields and refining infrastructure, and lies along the Shatt al-Arab waterway, which connects both countries to the Persian Gulf. A potential US ground operation there would therefore carry significant economic and strategic implications for Tehran.

The second scenario and the Kuwait risk

The second scenario outlined by Zaidi envisaged Tehran pressuring Baghdad to allow the use of Iraqi territory for an armed incursion into Kuwait. The small, oil-rich Gulf state has long been a US ally and has itself been subjected to repeated missile and drone attacks during the US-Iran war, including strikes attributed to Tehran. The last time Kuwait's territorial sovereignty was violated through a full-scale invasion was in August 1990, when Saddam Hussein's forces invaded and occupied the country. The subsequent Gulf War saw a US-led international coalition launch a massive military campaign against Iraqi forces, driving them out of Kuwait in February 1991. Al-Mada did not disclose the third scenario, nor did it provide further operational details about the two that were revealed. It is also unclear whether these scenarios have been formally approved by Washington or are merely contingency plans.

Iraq caught between the US and Iran

Zaidi's revelations come amid growing fears that Iraq could be dragged deeper into the US-Iran conflict. Though Baghdad has declared neutrality, its location between Iran and US-allied Gulf states, coupled with the presence of powerful Iran-backed armed groups, has made it difficult to keep the country out of the fighting. Iraq has spent more than two decades balancing relations with Washington and Tehran. The US-led invasion in 2003 and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein gave Washington a significant foothold, while Iran expanded its influence through political allies and armed groups. Several of these factions gained prominence during the fight against the Islamic State between 2014 and 2017. The challenge has intensified since the conflict began on February 28. According to the International Crisis Group, Iran-aligned Iraqi factions claimed more than 750 attacks on US targets in Iraq and across the region. Israel also struck weapons depots and launch sites belonging to these groups, while Iran targeted US positions at Harir and Erbil airport. US strikes on Iran-backed factions killed around 80 fighters in the war's first month.

Baghdad's neutrality under strain

Baghdad has repeatedly said it does not want to be drawn into the conflict. After a phone call with Trump on November 5, al-Zaidi reiterated that Iraqi territory must not be used to launch attacks against neighbouring countries. Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein has also warned armed groups against joining any Iranian retaliation. Speaking to Dijlah TV, he said Iraq was not prepared for another war, adding, "We are not part of any axis, and we do not want to let the Iraqi arena be turned into a battlefield." Baghdad remains under pressure from both sides. Washington has been pressing Iraq to disarm many of the Tehran-backed armed groups and, on November 6, asked Baghdad to close all but two of its border crossings with Iran. Back in September, five Iran-aligned armed groups had rejected Baghdad's deadline to surrender their weapons, dissolve their organisations and integrate into state security forces. They also demanded guarantees that American forces would not return to Iraq and that Washington would stop influencing the country's political and economic decisions.